'Deal Or No Deal' Revival

[Black Hole]

A very simple idea, and the game play has intrigued me from when it was on before. I can't figure out how to go about calculating the notional value of the selected box to compare with the banker's offer.

For those who don't know the programme, let me explain its fundamentals:

Boxes numbered 1-22 are prepared in advance, in secret, each concealing a random value from 1p to £100,000. The day's player chooses one of the boxes at random (which remains closed), and then proceeds to open the other boxes one by one at random, to reveal their contents.

At various intervals (after 5, 8, 11, 14, 17, 19, & 20 boxes have been revealed) an anonymous "banker" makes a bid to buy the player's box (containing an unknown value, but obviously one of the values not yet revealed). The player can then choose whether to accept the bid and take home that amount of money, or play on. If they choose to play on until the end, they get the value contained in their box as their prize.

It's psychological, like poker. At each bid, there are a variety of values that could be in the player's box. The banker's bid is to limit the damage (to the bank) of a potential high value in the player's box. The player wants to mitigate the risk of a low value in their box, but might choose to play on anyway because they are not actually risking anything (except walking away with less than they could have done).

The intrigue comes from how a player should value the list of remaining possible values of their box, so that it the banker's bid is greater than the notional value, they should accept it. Is that simply the median value, where there is a 50/50 chance of the box value being less than the bid? I guess so, but there is still wriggle room. The two values spanning the median provide a lower and upper limit, and the banker has an option to bias the bid lower or higher within that span according to the psychology of the player. While the £100,000 remains on the table, there is an attraction to play on simply for the possibility it's in the player's box.

In case the actual values are important to the calculation, they are: 1p, 10p, 50p, £1, £5, £10, £50, £100, £250, £500, £750, £1,000, £2,000, £3,000, £4,000, £5,000, £7,500, £10,000, £25,000, £50,000, £75,000, £100,000.

 

[prpr]

Is it coming back then? I think Neil Edwards did it very well.
It's always difficult taking over somebody else's show. That Weakest Link reboot has never worked for me (celebs are mostly incredibly thick it seems, compared to the general public), nor did the 15:1 one work without WGS.

Is that simply the median value, where there is a 50/50 chance of the box value being less than the bid?

I always thought it ought to be roughly the mean of the values left, but it was never that high. Couldn't get my head round the numbers. (You forgot the swap offer at the end.)

Looks like the old Paintworks on the Bath road got turned in to housing etc., like most of these places. So where's it going to be made now?

 

[Black Hole]

Is it coming back then?

First one was today.

I always thought it ought to be roughly the mean of the values left

I don't think that would earn you many credits as banker!

Let's say you're at the 5 boxes left stage, and the values on the board are £10, £100, £1,000, £10,000, £100,000. The mean would be £22,222... but there's an 80% chance your box contains less than that. Clearly the box is worth less than the mean (in this instance, and perhaps in all instances), but that is the conundrum.

You forgot the swap offer at the end

An irrelevant detail.

 

[prpr]

I don't think that would earn you many credits as banker!

Let's say you're at the 5 boxes left stage, and the values on the board are £10, £100, £1,000, £10,000, £100,000. The mean would be £22,222... but there's an 80% chance your box contains less than that.

I never liked the probability stuff when we were doing it at school. Now you know why.

 

[Black Hole]

I can do ordinary probabilities, but this has me scratching my head.

My hunch (in this specific example) is £1,000: the chance your box contains less than that is 40%, and greater than that 40%. But £1,000 doesn't feel like much to settle for, and although it's still a bird in the hand, the possibility of £10,000 or £100,000 might seem worth the risk. So the banker sweetens the deal by offering somewhere between £1,000 and £10,000, but certainly less than £22,222.

So I guess my question is whether there is a method which accounts for "attractiveness".

I just had an idea: antilog of the mean of the logs. Result: £1,000. (I think this "works" because the value options are roughly exponential, and the ones I chose are exactly exponential.)

Inverse of the mean of the inverses: £45.

 

[EEPhil]

I think Neil Edwards did it very well.

I'll assume an intentional name mangling.

As for the programme, I will avoid it. Unfortunately caught the back end of the signed version this morning. Not for me!

 

[Black Hole]

Square of the mean of the roots: £21,253

 

[prpr]

I'll assume an intentional name mangling.

I guess you missed the reference to his R1 Sunday morning show some considerable number of years ago. I believe it was John Snagge (on R1, yes!).

 

[Black Hole]

John Snagge? "Here is the news, and this is John Snagge reading it."

 

[EEPhil]

John Snagge? "Here is the news, and this is John Snagge reading it."

You'll be mentioning Alvar Liddell next at this rate!

I guess you missed the reference to his R1 Sunday morning show.

I vaguely recall listening, but missed the reference.

 

[Black Hole]

The only reason that name meant anything to me is because he introduced the radio episodes of Dad's Army, setting the scene with a news report.

 

[prpr]

One little nudge of the memory leads to this:

and an interesting comment towards the end, considering they ended up working together not that long afterwards.
References here too. I'd forgotten Brian Perkins took over, and the name Dingley Dell (which I expect inspired Crinkley Bottom a few years later).

 

[EEPhil]

That'll be why Snagge references didn't ring a bell. It was Perkins that I remember. I also forgot about the Crinkley Bottom. It's going to take ages to get that image out of my head. I was already feeling .

 

[Wallace]

A very interesting recording. One of the things I took away from this is how manual the whole operation was. Unpacking LP's, moving cartridges and that is addition to the equipment used. Compared to todays 'solid state' affair. The skill of the DJ, I think, was underrated.

 

[prpr]

That'll be why Snagge references didn't ring a bell. It was Perkins that I remember

Actually, now that I've thought about it a bit more, it might have been Perkins rather than Snagge who called him Edwards.
Further research indicates the Sunday morning programme ran from Sep 78 to Mar 83 inc.

The skill of the DJ, I think, was underrated.

Yes, he was clearly fully expert at what he was doing, as were many others. Kenny Everett was of course the master of 'creating radio'. I don't think there's been anyone else who's done what he did, and, as you say, all done manually.
Nowadays on these automated stations where everything's run by a computer, you know exactly where every track's going to get cut off.

 

[EEPhil]

Nowadays on these automated stations where everything's run by a computer, you know exactly where every track's going to get cut off.

For a year or so a few years ago the local TV station (Notts TV) had some cameras in a local radio studio for the breakfast programme. It did seem as though any fool could run the desk. Press the right button and the whole thing ran automatically (probably like the BBC when Wogan was still there and the fire alarm went off). The only skill I saw was when the presenter answered a phone call whilst a track was playing. The studio sound plus the call was recorded on another computer, edited and then played seamlessly into the broadcast output a few minutes later. All done by the presenter.
It wouldn't surprise me if most of the "celebrity" presenters on various stations just sit in front of the microphone whilst the producer does the real work.

 

[EEPhil]

You'll be mentioning Alvar Liddell next at this rate!

Okay, so I'll be the one mentioning him.
I was watching Manhunt (1969) on TPTV last night. Guess what name appeared in the credits? A wartime radio announcer. Typecasting or what?

 

[Black Hole]

There's a recurring theme. I don't watch every day by any means, but the ones I have watched have only beaten the banker once. In general, the last several have bet against the odds and lost.