Space junk

[Black Hole]

I think the probabilities are such that a bit of orbital debris has to have been up there a very long time to have a reasonable chance of hitting something else.

Humour accepted, hence the emoticon (I refuse to call it an emoji!).

 

[MikeSh]

The probability of winning the lottery isn't high ... but someone wins it most weeks.
Not me though
Anyway, I don't think you can legitimately say the probabilities are that it has to have been up there any amount of time. This simply was or may have been down one end of the bell curve.